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Why are corporate default rates so low in the UK?

Corporate default rates in the UK are exceptionally low for this stage of the economic cycle. The severity of the recent economic shock should have resulted in a rise in defaults bigger than experienced in the last 50 years of economic downturns - or at least on par with some of the worst. They have risen, but nothing like the fall in economic growth suggests they should have. In this Weekly, we p

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Monthly Markets Review: Risk Aversion Rises in August as Double Dip Concerns Grow

August and the summer are now over and investors and savers are now focusing on the autumnal months ahead. Stocks internationally had their worst August performance since 2001 and the ISEQ fell 7.2% in the month. Mounting concerns about the health of the economic recovery in Ireland, the US and internationally saw investors move into government bonds and gold. Some respite came due to the falling

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USD/CHF’s Threat of Parity Offers Potential Scalping Opportunity

The USD/CHF has been in a bearish trend on double dip concerns as the Swiss Franc has regained its safe haven status. Stronger than expected U.S. fundamentals has eased concerns, slowing downside momentum. However, we have seen volatility increase today as European banking concerns re-emerged which could decrease the attractiveness of the Franc as potential shelter. Therefore, we could see the pai

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Bank Research Consensus Weekly 09.07.10

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published its latest Triennial Central Bank Survey of the FX market on Wednesday, which draws on data from 53 central banks fortransactions in the month of April. The survey reveals that the market has continued togrow strongly, with a 20% increase in overall turnover since 2007 to a mind-bogglingUSD4,000bn – a day! This clearly illustrates that t

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A week filled with data and variable uncovered that led to strong fluctuation

The past week was filled with data released by the U.S economy in addition to other major economies that resulted in high volatility and fluctuation within the financial markets as investors took a ride on a rollercoaster filled with disappointments and optimism. One of the major data released this week was the Income report, where is showed that income for U.S individuals increased by 0.2% during

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Asia awaiting a week of central banks decisions

This week will witness decisions made by both the central banks of Japan and Australia on interest rates, and considering the strain in financial markets the decisions will have a great impact on the markets and investors confidence regarding the outlook. Starting off will be with the Reserve Bank of Australia where it is expected to keep the interest rate at 4.50% for the fifth consecutive month.

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ECB expands monetary support, while growth estimates revised to the upside

Last week started with optimism after BoJ’s decision to expand its credit program; following was the ECB’s rate decision and vows for price stability to support the continent’s growth, which came after the preliminary GDP reading that was revised to the upside as exports surged along with rising investment spending. The ECB decided to preserve interest rates at 1.00 percent, the lowest since

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Estonian inflation for August is due for release today

Review Czech industrial production and retail sales for July came out weaker than expected. Industrial production dropped to 5.3% y/y in July, down from the revised 9% y/y in June and well below consensus (7.3% y/y). Also, retail sales in July were weaker than expected, dropping sharply to a negative 1.0% y/y, down from the revised 7.0% y/y. Both results should to some extent calm down expectation

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SARB is ready for another cut

Market movers ahead: Rate decision in South Africa and inflation across the CEE region Despite the South African economy continuing to recover, there are some signs that the recovery is losing steam and global economic slowdown poses further downside risks to the South African economy. At the same time, inflation continues to ease and is now well within the South African central bank target of 3-6

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Latin America: Different recovery cycles

While Peru maintains a high growth rate (above expectations), in Brazil the data for 2Q10 shows that the economy continues growing at a high pace, though lower than 1Q10. The Central Bank of Brazil kept its policy rate at 10.75%. There was a setback to confidence among manufacturers in Mexico as a result of worse news about the US, while consumer confidence remained stable. In Peru, consumers’ c

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